Using rich panel data from the German SOEP (2010–2019), we transform the Ethnosizer (Constant et al., 2009) from a cross-sectional measure of immigrant identity into a dynamic tool that tracks identity shifts over time.

Methodologically, we combine a dynamic panel framework (System GMM) with a simultaneous two-equation dynamic binary model, allowing us to estimate both state dependence and transition probabilities between the identity states defined by Berry (1980).

Our results show that commitments to destination and origin cultures are highly persistent once formed—yet they are not irreversible. Transitions do occur and, among them, we observe a phenomenon of "integration reversal," whereby identification with the destination culture weakens rather than strengthens.

This reversibility of the integration process demonstrates that integration is not a final destination, but a path-dependent process shaped by persistence, contextual shocks, and individual experiences. We complement the empirical analysis with a theoretical model that provides a foundation for the mechanisms behind identity revision and integration reversal.